Space Future - Space Tourism and Transportation

1. Barnstormers in Space?

When I was invited to talk about various issues concerning space transportation for space tourism, I remembered the early aviators called barnstormers. They were veteran pilots who got aeroplanes which were used and disposed of by the government after World War 1. They took to the road with these air planes for acrobatic flight shows and entertainment of passenger flights. It was the good old days of early aeroplanes. Space tourism sounds to me like a revival of such old dreams of flight. Wondering if the Japanese Rocket Society agrees with my idea, I would like to comment on the subject around this theme.

There may be two different views on the early aeroplane business. The enthusiasm of people curious about flying excited with a strong smell of castor oil drive the progress of American civil air transportation to become the world's largest airline business. Another view is that it was a sort of poetic description of natural scenery of early America. These two different views may affect thinking on space tourism.

Even in Tokyo, sightseeing flight tours were operated, using deHavilland Dove and Helon, in the late 50's when commercial airlines were not yet as popular as nowadays.

2. Safety of Passenger Planes

At the present, sightseeing flight is impossible without assurance of safety. Various standards to assure safety can be considered. The most typical standard I would choose is that insurance companies will have to insure space tourists as they are now doing for overseas travelers. If the safety of space rockets is assured at the same level as the Concorde supersonic transport, insurance companies will be willing to insure space tourists.

To assure the safety of rockets to the same level as that of present-day aircraft might be a difficult problem. But if this is not solved, it will be impossible to make daily business flights because of frequent interruptions by damage and expenditure for compensation.

As represented by the Apollo program, the reliability of space rockets has been very high. But the meaning of reliability is different for space rockets and aeroplanes. One is expendable, and the other is repetitively used for an extended period. Thus, the terminologies of safety and reliability are used on different technical bases for space and air craft.

It is assumed in the case of passenger airplanes that any potentially predicted failures, such as damage or cracks always exist, even if they cannot be found by preflight and periodic inspections. Thus fail-safe design is the basic philosophy. It is required for aeroplanes to be able to fly even if an additional failure or crack takes place, or an old crack is enlarged.

Fail-safe design cannot be accomplished by making systems or structures in duplicate. The same type of failure can happen simultaneously in both when one fails. This is the basic idea of passenger aircraft design.

Let's consider an autopilot system using fly-by-wire as an example. Considering failure modes of semiconductor microchips might be the same for same manufacturing process, products of different manufacturers should be combined for a redundant system design. The same idea is applied in software design. You should anticipate that a software developer makes the same bugs in his software products, so different people are needed to make redundant software. Even if some ideas are commonly used for aircraft and space systems design, operational conditions are different, especially in repetition rates and time length. It is most important to specify the philosophy of designing reliability and safety for space passenger vehicle.

3. Feeling safe but paying for thrill

A lot of controversies may be necessary over the applicability of the safety design standards used for passenger aircraft design for designing spaceplanes for space tourism. But in the case that the general public participate in space tours, we have to consider that they will want to feel as safe as when they use airlines.

Feeling safe is different from understanding safety by statistical data or design data. Feeling is not a matter of numerical quantities but is based on personal experience. In this respect, I myself would not like to be launched into space in a wingless capsule. On the other hand, the current airlines provide their passengers with no parachutes but only safety jackets for emergency. Aircraft are designed to make an emergency landing in case of accidents. This is accepted by passengers as a standard procedure without complaints.

The method of landing vertically, firing rocket engines, will not be comfortable even though I know the reliability by statistics and theory. I had a similar feeling whenever I saw the Harrier fighter land vertically by means of vertical thrust of engines, instead of lifting forces of the wings.

Use of multiple engines for such vertical take-off landing vehicle can avoid accidents caused by engine failure, and the control system can be provided with complete fail-safe capability. However, individual modes of accidents and possible rescue operations might be concerns of not only the passengers but also the government agency in charge of its safety.

However, it will be a question if spaceplanes are made as safe as the elevators of Tokyo Tower, the Shinkansen (the bullet train) and taxis, whether they would be attractive to space tourists. If the purpose of space tourism is to challenge something unusual that is not necessarily safe, excessive safety might lessen the interest of people.

In other words, the space tourism planner should study what is the motivation of those people who can not be satisfied with the most precise computer-simulated experience and want to go to space. What can they expect to experience during the tour? What makes them feel proud when they return and talk with their friends? These questions are concerned with the value and consequently the price of the space tours.

The price of tourism is a key factor affect in the success of the business, and will pursue the lowest price. But, in my opinion, the lowest price will not be the best price. Wrist watches give a good example of this view. Precision of watches was once the key factor of quality. But now it has improved remarkably using quartz movements, and is no longer a factor determining the price. On the contrary, old mechanical movements are sold at a higher price. Likewise, space tourism for the general public may not be so attractive if the price is too low to limit the entertainment opportunities.

4. Barnstormers revisited

The barnstormers that I introduced at the beginning disappeared with stricter regulation of air transportation by the government. But, I thought I saw a revival of the barnstormers with a supersonic aircraft at an air show held in America. At the site, I saw a large hanging sign across a road, which called for passengers to experience a short supersonic flight. The operation was busy with many people signing up. The flight time is thirty minutes or a little longer. The fee was several thousand dollars, which might be a little expensive, but every one enjoyed the flight and was satisfied with a light meal during the flight and a special keyholder souvenir in hand.

It will be the minimum requirements for a passenger on a space flight to take a meal and to watch the earth through an individual window.

Tsuruo Torikai graduated from Yokohama National University in 1953. Starting his professional career at Fuji Heavy Industry (FHI), he participated in various aircraft design teams organized for national projects, such as T-1 Trainer, YS-11, C-1and T-2 Trainer, as a designer. From 1971, he was the general manager of FHI's aircraft division, until he was assigned to his present position of managing director of Japan Aircraft Development Corporation. He is a government registered consultant engineer, and member of several academic societies including the Japanese Rocket Society.


A comment presented at JRS Space Tourism Study Conference held on April 14, 1993. Edited and translated into English from taped transcript originally in Japanese. Originally published in the Journal of Space Technology and Science, Vol.9 No.1 '93 spring, pp.19-20	Space Tourism and Transportation
Japan Aircraft Development Corporation, Toranomon Daiichi Bldg.,2-3, Toranomon 1-chome, Minato-ku, 105	Tsuruo Torikai
	1. Barnstormers in Space? When I was invited to talk about various issues concerning space transportation for space tourism, I remembered the early aviators called barnstormers. They were veteran pilots who got aeroplanes which were used and disposed of by the government after World War 1. They took to the road with these air planes for acrobatic flight shows and entertainment of passenger flights. It was the good old days of early aeroplanes. Space tourism sounds to me like a revival of such old dreams of flight. Wondering if the Japanese Rocket Society agrees with my idea, I would like to comment on the subject around this theme. There may be two different views on the early aeroplane business. The enthusiasm of people curious about flying excited with a strong smell of castor oil drive the progress of American civil air transportation to become the world's largest airline business. Another view is that it was a sort of poetic description of natural scenery of early America. These two different views may affect thinking on space tourism. Even in Tokyo, sightseeing flight tours were operated, using deHavilland Dove and Helon, in the late 50's when commercial airlines were not yet as popular as nowadays. 2. Safety of Passenger Planes At the present, sightseeing flight is impossible without assurance of safety. Various standards to assure safety can be considered. The most typical standard I would choose is that insurance companies will have to insure space tourists as they are now doing for overseas travelers. If the safety of space rockets is assured at the same level as the Concorde supersonic transport, insurance companies will be willing to insure space tourists. To assure the safety of rockets to the same level as that of present-day aircraft might be a difficult problem. But if this is not solved, it will be impossible to make daily business flights because of frequent interruptions by damage and expenditure for compensation. As represented by the Apollo program, the reliability of space rockets has been very high. But the meaning of reliability is different for space rockets and aeroplanes. One is expendable, and the other is repetitively used for an extended period. Thus, the terminologies of safety and reliability are used on different technical bases for space and air craft. It is assumed in the case of passenger airplanes that any potentially predicted failures, such as damage or cracks always exist, even if they cannot be found by preflight and periodic inspections. Thus fail-safe design is the basic philosophy. It is required for aeroplanes to be able to fly even if an additional failure or crack takes place, or an old crack is enlarged. Fail-safe design cannot be accomplished by making systems or structures in duplicate. The same type of failure can happen simultaneously in both when one fails. This is the basic idea of passenger aircraft design. Let's consider an autopilot system using fly-by-wire as an example. Considering failure modes of semiconductor microchips might be the same for same manufacturing process, products of different manufacturers should be combined for a redundant system design. The same idea is applied in software design. You should anticipate that a software developer makes the same bugs in his software products, so different people are needed to make redundant software. Even if some ideas are commonly used for aircraft and space systems design, operational conditions are different, especially in repetition rates and time length. It is most important to specify the philosophy of designing reliability and safety for space passenger vehicle. 3. Feeling safe but paying for thrill A lot of controversies may be necessary over the applicability of the safety design standards used for passenger aircraft design for designing spaceplanes for space tourism. But in the case that the general public participate in space tours, we have to consider that they will want to feel as safe as when they use airlines. Feeling safe is different from understanding safety by statistical data or design data. Feeling is not a matter of numerical quantities but is based on personal experience. In this respect, I myself would not like to be launched into space in a wingless capsule. On the other hand, the current airlines provide their passengers with no parachutes but only safety jackets for emergency. Aircraft are designed to make an emergency landing in case of accidents. This is accepted by passengers as a standard procedure without complaints. The method of landing vertically, firing rocket engines, will not be comfortable even though I know the reliability by statistics and theory. I had a similar feeling whenever I saw the Harrier fighter land vertically by means of vertical thrust of engines, instead of lifting forces of the wings. Use of multiple engines for such vertical take-off landing vehicle can avoid accidents caused by engine failure, and the control system can be provided with complete fail-safe capability. However, individual modes of accidents and possible rescue operations might be concerns of not only the passengers but also the government agency in charge of its safety. However, it will be a question if spaceplanes are made as safe as the elevators of Tokyo Tower, the Shinkansen (the bullet train) and taxis, whether they would be attractive to space tourists. If the purpose of space tourism is to challenge something unusual that is not necessarily safe, excessive safety might lessen the interest of people. In other words, the space tourism planner should study what is the motivation of those people who can not be satisfied with the most precise computer-simulated experience and want to go to space. What can they expect to experience during the tour? What makes them feel proud when they return and talk with their friends? These questions are concerned with the value and consequently the price of the space tours. The price of tourism is a key factor affect in the success of the business, and will pursue the lowest price. But, in my opinion, the lowest price will not be the best price. Wrist watches give a good example of this view. Precision of watches was once the key factor of quality. But now it has improved remarkably using quartz movements, and is no longer a factor determining the price. On the contrary, old mechanical movements are sold at a higher price. Likewise, space tourism for the general public may not be so attractive if the price is too low to limit the entertainment opportunities. 4. Barnstormers revisited The barnstormers that I introduced at the beginning disappeared with stricter regulation of air transportation by the government. But, I thought I saw a revival of the barnstormers with a supersonic aircraft at an air show held in America. At the site, I saw a large hanging sign across a road, which called for passengers to experience a short supersonic flight. The operation was busy with many people signing up. The flight time is thirty minutes or a little longer. The fee was several thousand dollars, which might be a little expensive, but every one enjoyed the flight and was satisfied with a light meal during the flight and a special keyholder souvenir in hand. It will be the minimum requirements for a passenger on a space flight to take a meal and to watch the earth through an individual window. Tsuruo Torikai graduated from Yokohama National University in 1953. Starting his professional career at Fuji Heavy Industry (FHI), he participated in various aircraft design teams organized for national projects, such as T-1 Trainer, YS-11, C-1and T-2 Trainer, as a designer. From 1971, he was the general manager of FHI's aircraft division, until he was assigned to his present position of managing director of Japan Aircraft Development Corporation. He is a government registered consultant engineer, and member of several academic societies including the Japanese Rocket Society.